6. Scenario analysis

At least three potential scenarios that could develop should be analysed to ensure that CARE’s programme strategy can be adapted to changes of context. The scenarios should be based on ‘best case’, ‘medium’ (usually ‘most likely’) and ‘worst case’ scenarios. When developing the scenarios consider the following questions:

• What are the likely triggers for change in the situation?
• What are the environmental conditions affecting the response? In the case of a natural disaster, is there potential for another disaster event (for example, a secondary cyclone or earthquake) or for conditions to worsen (such as continued rains)?
• Is there potential for the conflict to develop or to escalate? What would be the impacts of an escalating conflict on the population? What would be the impacts on relief efforts?
• What are the possible political reactions? How will these affect relief efforts?
• What are the likely response scenarios-what would happen if there is not enough aid committed, or alternatively too much?
• What are the views towards international aid agencies among the general population, government authorities and political groups?